🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.