🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still