Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
