Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
