Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The mean figure of daily homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative data. But, public safety specialists have advised that murder data might not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts warned that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for assessing the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could obscure days when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.